This is going to be a long one so please stick with me on this one.

This past Monday evening I found my self doing some recreational web surfing so I went to one of my favourite sites ted.com. Ted.com describes itself as: “TED is a small nonprofit devoted to Ideas Worth Spreading. It started out (in 1984) as a conference bringing together people from three worlds: Technology, Entertainment, Design.” Among its many videos I found the following video: World Without Oil Whose message should be understood and considered when planning future developments of any town or city.

The video is of a TED lecture by Rob Hopkins from the UK discussing a topic that is very much under the radar and in terms that I had not considered. He proposes that though we will never run out of oil, we will and are running out of cheap oil.

As our supply of cheap oil diminishes we are forced into employing more expensive means of extracting oil from the earth. Albertans are well aware of these methods, enjoying the temporary benefits of the likes of the Oils Sands. But when the amount of energy needed to extract one barrel of oil exceeds the energy contained in one barrel of oil, production will cease.

The information I could find (links at the end of this article) suggest that world oil production has or will peak somewhere between 2005 and 2015. Predicted effects of the lack of cheap oil are big spikes in oil prices with the world economy retracting. The news and events of the past year seem to support these predictions. Just the fact that the Alberta Tar Sands development exists at all is proof that we are indeed running out of cheap oil.

Albertans should not be complacent about this, by holding on to the notion that since we are oil producers we will be somehow insulated from Peak Oil affects. (Peak Oil is when the world has reached its maximum oil production. Past that point in time oil production diminishes.) Albertans seem to pay just as much at the pumps if not more when compared to our neighbors south of the border when the price of oil goes up. Lack of cheap oil will affect everything we import, which is just about everything in Alberta. It will affect where we work and how we get there.

Albertans are totally committed to our oil based society. We have planned our cities and towns, transportations systems, highways, housing, food supply etc. all around the fact that we have cheap oil.

The consequences of Peak Oil should be of great concern to the entire world, especially the future planning of any community. The diminishing of cheap oil will affect every aspect of our society, but our leaders at all levels are ignoring these issues and there is evidence that on some levels they are actually hiding these facts.

The good news from Rob Hopkin’s video is that he has a possible solution that is now being implemented called Transition Network: Tackling Peak Oil and Climate Change; Together. The Networks purpose it to help communities make the transition from the oil based society to a society without oil.

Here is an excerpt from the Transition Network website that caught my attention:

• if we wait for the governments, it'll be too little, too late
• if we act as individuals, it'll be too little
• but if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time.

Please follow the links at the end of this post for more complete details of the Transition movement. It is very much worth the read.

Now back to the question at hand. Gateway Town Centre, is it a good idea?

The first thing Mayor Houston stated in the December 4th issue of the Spruce Grove Examiner in his sales pitch for the Gateway Town Centre was that Spruce Grove was missing opportunities because there were 34,000 drivers daily, passing the intersection of Century Road and Hwy 16, the location of the proposed development. He also stated that the city would be limited to assembling the lands and identifying the developers. He stated that the city would have to borrow the funds to “assemble” the land. He went on to state that MXD Development Strategists, a company from Vancouver, estimate that it generate about $135 million of development and 2600 jobs during construction. He expected the project to be finished within 8 – 10 years and expected to have 900 permanent jobs and add $2.25 million to the tax base. He ended by stating that the Gateway Town Centre will create many opportunities in the future.

Well after looking into the details a bit more and putting some thought into this proposal I am convinced that this proposal is at the very least speculative, and at the worst unsustainable folly.

Here’s why.

• Will the traffic be there in 10 years? The Mayor and the consulting firm supplying the statistics are looking at past traffic patterns and are just speculating that future traffic maintaining historical patterns.
• Assembling the land? What the Mayor did not state was that we are going to borrow $8.9 million to pay for the land and sell it to yet unknown developers.
• Please explain to me how if this will not affect my property taxes.
• Meddling with the free market? If this is such a great idea one would think that developers would have thought of this already and risked their own money to purchase the land and create the development. Not the tax payer. Or maybe they have and the Council is not telling all.
• Location is all wrong. It splits the shopping districts in two. Just ask Stony Plain about the issues created by splitting the shopping districts.
• We now have shopping corridor developing in a natural fashion a along Hwy 16A all the way to Stony Plain. Why do we need two? Remember, united we stand divided we fall?
• We all know that the reason Hwy 16 has a lot of traffic. It’s faster, especially since the Anthony Henday was extended and there are no traffic lights to slow you down. So much of the traffic will not stop anyway as they are in a hurry. And that’s supposing the traffic will be there in 10 or 20 years in the first place.
• Besides $8.9 million could by some pretty convincing signs to direct traffic to our existing business district.
• The whole premise of the proposal is based upon the supposition that we will have cheap oil for ever.
• I am not in favor of any government getting involved in speculative property development.
• As a business owner myself, I would be hard pressed to find enough reasons to locate my business away from the central shopping district.

It seems to me we could borrow $8.9 million and put it to better use that would benefit all residents. Like some sustainable energy initiatives for the city and residents. How about some public transportation? How about some more RCMP officers to handle the load, we still have the same number since our population has doubled? Maybe some more bike paths. How about some equipment to record and broadcast council meetings? Think about some support for family violence victims or the homeless. Council would do well to give a second and third thought before borrowing money to speculate with.

At the very least if we are going borrow $8.9 million, I would like to see the developers in place and committed before Council entertains this proposal.

Let us know what your thoughts are on our forum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
http://transitiontowns.org
http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php
http://www.peakoil.net/
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf